The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 ? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with a number of bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable gamer."
Even though highly regarded money has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are piling on Texas.
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"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We chatted with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has sneaked up slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded money pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly higher majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Put simply, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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